Borrowing costs for Ghanaians are poised to inch up in the coming weeks. This will happen even though the Bank of Ghana has kept its main policy rate at 14%. John Awuah, head of the Ghana Association of Banks, shared this outlook on May 22, 2026. He noted that this rise is not directly linked to the central bank's decision. Instead, it's influenced by other market conditions.
Several elements affect the Ghana Reference Rate, which banks use to set their lending prices. Treasury bill rates, for example, have seen a small increase. These Treasury bills are short-term loans issued by the government. Their changing rates are one of the three key drivers for the Ghana Reference Rate. The Ghana Reference Rate itself saw a tiny drop in May 2026, falling to 10.03% from 10.06% in April. This slight decrease was mainly due to a dip in interbank rates, which are the rates banks charge each other for loans. However, Treasury bill rates went up from 4.81% to 4.92% during the same period.
This development comes as businesses and economic analysts have often questioned why banks are slow to lower lending rates when the central bank cuts its policy rate. Mr. Awuah, however, stated that data does not support these claims of slow response. He highlighted that some customers already benefit from single-digit interest rates. This is for those with good credit histories. He mentioned seeing personal loan offers as low as 9% from some commercial banks. He explained that banks often keep this information private due to customer confidentiality rules.
Expert analysis suggests that the steady policy rate, combined with rising short-term government debt costs, creates a mixed environment. While the central bank aims to control inflation with its policy rate, market forces like Treasury bill yields play a crucial role in actual borrowing expenses. The Ghana Association of Banks' statement indicates a period of adjustment where lenders may need to account for these evolving market dynamics. This could impact business investment and consumer credit.
Looking ahead, market watchers will monitor how Treasury bill rates evolve. Any further increases here could put more upward pressure on the Ghana Reference Rate. This would likely translate into slightly higher loan costs across the economy. Businesses seeking loans might face marginally higher interest payments. Consumers looking for personal loans could also see a small uptick in their financing expenses. The central bank's next monetary policy meeting will be closely watched for any signals on future rate directions.