Ghanaian businesses must closely monitor inflation, Treasury bill yields, commercial lending rates, and government capital expenditure. This advice comes from PwC Ghana, which warns that global geopolitical tensions and monetary conditions threaten to reshape the domestic economic outlook during the second half of 2026. Improving macroeconomic indicators should not lead boards and chief executives to underestimate these significant risks.
PwC specifically identified monthly inflation data, particularly food inflation and imported price pressures, as crucial for corporate decision-making. Treasury bill rates, bank lending costs, and the pace of public capital expenditure are also key variables. These factors will influence borrowing, investment, consumer demand, and overall business confidence in Ghana.
This warning arrives amid heightened uncertainty in the Middle East, which could disrupt energy supplies and increase global commodity prices. PwC stated that prolonged instability could raise fuel prices, freight charges, insurance costs, and food production expenses. Such increases would place additional pressure on Ghana’s import bill and domestic transport costs. Higher international petroleum prices would also increase production and distribution expenses across sectors heavily dependent on diesel and other imported fuels.
For companies, these effects could manifest as rising input costs, weaker profit margins, and greater pressure to increase prices for consumers. PwC also cautioned that persistent global inflation might encourage major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, to maintain restrictive monetary policies for longer periods. This outcome could delay Ghana’s return to affordable international capital markets, keeping the cost of trade finance and external borrowing elevated.
A prolonged period of high global interest rates would impact not only government borrowing but also private companies. These companies often seek foreign currency financing for imports, machinery, and expansion projects. The increased cost of capital could stifle growth and investment across various sectors of the Ghanaian economy.
Despite these challenges, PwC identified several opportunities that could support Ghana’s economic recovery. Elevated gold prices continue to strengthen export earnings and foreign-exchange reserves. This provides some protection against external shocks. The ongoing restructuring of global supply chains could also create opportunities for Ghana to attract manufacturing investment. Companies seeking new production locations might consider Ghana due to its stable political environment and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
PwC’s sectoral assessment was broadly positive but cautious. Manufacturers could benefit from easing domestic interest rates, a relatively stable cedi, and improving macroeconomic confidence. However, rising costs for imported raw materials and delays in public infrastructure spending could constrain production and weaken expansion plans. The government's execution of infrastructure projects will therefore have important consequences for the construction and real estate sectors.
In agriculture, the firm acknowledged government support through programmes like Feed Ghana and investments in agricultural roads. However, it also noted criticism regarding the design and implementation of some interventions, such as the Poultry Farm-to-Table Project. The effectiveness of agricultural policy will depend on whether programmes improve productivity, reduce import dependence, and connect farmers more efficiently to markets.
PwC maintained a positive outlook for cocoa and mining due to favourable international commodity prices. Nevertheless, it advised companies in both sectors to protect themselves against price volatility and possible policy changes. The energy sector offers new investment opportunities as reforms progress, but unresolved legacy debts and the financial condition of state-owned enterprises remain major concerns. These liabilities could continue to affect investor confidence and create pressure on public finances. Banks and insurance companies are expected to benefit from improved macroeconomic stability and healthier loan portfolios. However, narrowing interest margins and the repricing of loans could test profitability and require careful balance-sheet management.