PwC is urging Chief Executive Officers and Boards in Ghana to pay close attention to monthly inflation figures, especially for food and imported goods. The professional services firm also advises monitoring changes in Treasury bill and bank lending rates. This guidance is crucial for navigating the country's economic landscape in the second half of 2026.
The advice stems from significant global economic uncertainty, primarily due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. This conflict is expected to impact commodity and financial markets worldwide. PwC warns that a prolonged conflict could increase fuel, freight, insurance, and food production costs, worsening Ghana’s trade balance and increasing domestic transport and electricity pressures.
This situation fits into a broader narrative of Ghana's economic vulnerability to external shocks. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth at 3% in 2026, with global inflation at 4.7%. The World Bank forecasts Brent crude oil prices around US$86 per barrel in 2026, with fertiliser prices expected to rise by 31%, including a 60% increase in urea prices. These global trends directly influence Ghana's import costs and overall economic stability.
PwC stated that renewed energy inflation is limiting the ability of major central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, to reduce interest rates. This 'higher-for-longer' global rate environment would delay Ghana’s return to affordable international capital markets. It would also increase the cost of trade finance and external corporate borrowing for Ghanaian businesses.
Looking ahead, businesses must prepare for potential increases in imported input costs, despite some improvements in macro stability and a steadier Ghana cedi. Delayed government spending on critical infrastructure, including roads, transport, and power, sends negative signals to potential investors. Decision-makers in both the public and private sectors will need to carefully manage these risks to ensure sustained economic growth and stability.
PwC also identified several sector-specific implications. For manufacturing, while macro stability and lower interest rates are positive, the main risk remains rising imported input costs. In agriculture, government support through initiatives like Feed Ghana is meaningful, but some projects have faced criticism for poor execution. Cocoa and mining sectors benefit from supportive external earnings, but businesses must hedge against commodity volatility and policy shifts.
The oil and gas sector, despite ongoing reforms, still faces material risks from legacy arrears and State-Owned Enterprise issues. PwC views this sector as having upside potential but notes it is not yet fully de-risked. In banking and insurance, macro stabilisation helps asset quality, but margin compression and re-pricing risks require careful management. Construction and real estate benefit from better interest rates, but public capital expenditure sequencing and imported material costs are key swing factors.
Retail and importers may see improved near-term demand, but effective foreign exchange management remains essential for their operations. The technology and telecoms sectors are identified as clear medium-term beneficiaries of digitalisation and formalisation initiatives. These varied impacts underscore the complex economic environment Ghanaian businesses must navigate in the coming months.