Voters who abstained from the 2024 general elections are showing a clear preference for the National Democratic Congress (NDC). This finding comes from Global Info Analytics, a respected polling firm. Their March 2026 tracking poll examined the voting intentions of these non-voters.
The poll analyzed absentee voters across different groups. These include education levels, religious beliefs, ethnic backgrounds, and income brackets. Lead pollster Mussa Dankwah stated the findings are significant. "The pool of voters who stayed home in 2024 is not neutral," he said. "It leans NDC." He added that activating these voters in 2028 "would compound the NPP’s existing deficit."
This information adds a new layer to Ghana's political discussions. The country's economy is a major concern for voters. The 2024 election saw President John Mahama of the NDC defeat Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP. President Mahama secured 56% of the vote. Dr. Bawumia received 41%.
When these non-voters are considered, NDC candidates appear to gain support. This trend is especially noticeable for NDC contenders like Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson and former General Secretary Johnson Asiedu Nketia. Their projected support increases across most demographic categories. In contrast, support for likely NPP flagbearer Dr. Bawumia either stays the same or drops slightly.
For instance, among voters with tertiary education, Dr. Forson's lead over Dr. Bawumia grows. It expands from 26 percentage points to 29 percentage points when absentee voters are included. A similar situation exists for voters with no formal education. Dr. Forson's advantage in this group rises from 11 points to 13 points.
The poll also explored religious affiliations. Among Christian voters, Dr. Forson's lead increases from 19 points to 22 points with the inclusion of non-voters. The effect is even more dramatic among non-religious voters. Their support margin for Dr. Forson jumps from 8 points to 18 points.
However, the data shows some exceptions to this trend. Within Islamic communities, particularly among Shia and Tijaniyya Muslims, both NDC candidates seem to lose support when absentee voters are considered. This might be due to Dr. Bawumia's established appeal among Muslim voters. These voters are concentrated in northern Ghana, a region with historical ties to Dr. Bawumia.
Ethnic divisions also show nuances. The NDC sees modest gains among Akan, Ga-Adangme, and Ewe voters when non-voters are added. The Ewe group remains a strong base for the NDC. However, the poll found an unexplained anomaly among Mande voters. Dr. Forson's numbers in this group turn negative after factoring in absentee voters.
These findings suggest that political parties need to understand and engage non-traditional voting blocs. The NDC's ability to mobilize these voters could be a key factor in future elections. The NPP will likely need strategies to counter this trend. The economic performance and government policies will also heavily influence voter sentiment going forward.