Fitch Projects Likely Extension of Fuel Relief Measures
Government may continue to cushion consumers as crude oil prices surge to $105 per barrel.
Akosua Boateng | StatsGH |
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These temporary measures were put in place on April 16, 2026. They aimed to lessen the impact of higher global oil prices on Ghanaians at the pump. The government initially agreed to cover GHS 2 per litre for diesel and GHS 0.36 per litre for petrol. This policy was scheduled to end on May 16, 2026, after a one-month duration. Government Communications Minister Felix Kwakye Ofosu stated these actions were necessary to respond to sharp increases in global oil prices. He added that the government is committed to price stability and protecting livelihoods to support economic recovery from external shocks.
The current surge in oil prices is partly driven by geopolitical tensions. Reports of US President Donald Trump being unhappy with a proposed peace plan involving Iran have pushed Brent crude oil prices to around $105 per barrel. This situation is expected to lead to further reviews of fuel prices in Ghana starting May 16, 2026. Petrol prices have already seen increases between 0.10% and 0.51% per litre. Diesel prices have experienced a larger jump of nearly 6.77%. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices are also expected to rise significantly, between 7.24% and 10.41%, due to delayed price adjustments from recent international arrangements.
Fitch Ratings also shared its broader assessment of Ghana's economy in its latest country report. The agency has upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, with a Positive Outlook. This upgrade indicates improved confidence in Ghana's ability to repay its debts. Fitch predicts that higher oil prices could lead to a gradual increase in inflation towards the end of 2026. However, the agency expects inflation to continue decreasing on an annual average basis through 2026 and 2027. Fitch noted that the Bank of Ghana is likely to maintain its current monetary policy stance. This means they may pause further reductions in interest rates to prevent inflation from rising too quickly. The central bank had previously cut its policy rate by 1,400 basis points between July 2025 and March 2026, bringing it to 14%.
Regarding public debt, Fitch projects it will fall further to 46% of GDP by 2027. This is lower than the average for similar rated countries, which stands at 51%. This projected debt reduction follows a significant drop in 2025, driven by a stronger Ghanaian cedi and effective fiscal management. The report also forecasts strong economic growth, with an average GDP expansion of 5% through 2027. This growth is expected to be supported by the gold mining sector, increased consumer confidence, lower inflation, and reduced borrowing costs. Furthermore, Fitch anticipates that Ghana will maintain a strong current account surplus in 2026, following a record surplus of 8.2% of GDP in 2025. This positive outlook for the current account is supported by assumptions of high gold prices continuing throughout 2026.
The potential extension of fuel relief measures will be closely watched by consumers and businesses. The fiscal implications of such an extension, even if small, will also be a point of focus for market analysts and policymakers. Decisions on these relief measures will directly impact household budgets and the cost of doing business across various sectors in Ghana.