Ghana’s crude oil production plummeted by 22.7% between 2024 and 2025, falling to 37.3 million barrels in 2025 from 71.44 million barrels in 2019. This sharp decline caused total petroleum revenues to crash by over 43%, decreasing from US$1.36 billion to US$770.27 million.
This significant reduction in oil output stems from several critical factors. Ageing oil fields, a severe lack of new investment in exploration, persistent operational challenges, and the government’s substantial unpaid debts to upstream operators are all contributing to the decline. The Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) has highlighted these issues, underscoring the severe impact on Ghana’s financial health.
The continuous fall in oil production represents a major setback for Ghana's economic aspirations. Oil revenues are crucial for funding government initiatives and infrastructure projects through programmes like the 'Big Push Agenda.' Reduced petroleum revenues directly constrain the government's ability to finance these development programmes. This trend impacts national budgeting and the overall fiscal stability of the country.
The Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) annual report for 2025 explicitly points to these challenges. PIAC indicated the decline is due to natural field depletion as Ghana’s three main fields – Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa-Gye Nyame (SGN) – mature. They also noted a five-year period, from 2019 to 2024, without a single new Petroleum Agreement being signed. This 'investment drought' has prevented the development of new oil fields to compensate for the natural decline in existing ones. Furthermore, the government owes approximately US$225 million to upstream operators like Tullow for gas payments and unpaid costs. This debt deters new investments, exacerbating the production crisis.
Moving forward, the government must address these issues swiftly to mitigate further economic damage. Restoring investor confidence, settling outstanding debts to oil companies, and attracting new investments in exploration are crucial steps. The market will closely watch for policy interventions aimed at reversing the six-year decline in oil production. Failure to act risks further shrinkage of the national purse and delays in critical infrastructure development across Ghana. This situation also impacts the District Assemblies Common Fund (DACF), which received only 0.43% of its expected oil funds in 2025, far below the legally mandated 5% contribution.
This persistent decline signifies a compounding annual average drop of 9% over the six years. The 2025 figures underscore the urgency for immediate action. Addressing these challenges is vital for Ghana’s long-term economic stability and development trajectory. The government's response to this crisis will define its fiscal capacity in the coming years.