Ghana is on track to exit its $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Credit Facility program in August 2026. An IMF team recently visited Accra to conduct its final review. If successful, the nation will receive a final disbursement of $360 million. This marks the formal end of a rescue program initiated in the economic crisis of 2022. The presented economic data shows significant improvements. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.3% in the first half of 2025. The primary balance, which measures government revenue against expenditure excluding interest payments, shifted from a deficit of 2.9% of GDP to a surplus of 2.6%. Public debt fell from 61.8% to 45.3% of GDP. This debt reduction a decade ahead of the IMF’s 2034 target. Inflation dropped from a peak of 54% in December 2022 to 13.7% by mid-2025. By March 2026, inflation stood at a low 3.2%. The IMF projects inflation will rise to 7.9% by year-end 2026. GDP growth is expected to reach 4.8% in 2026, slightly above the average for sub-Saharan Africa.
Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson described the reform journey as "long, demanding, but ultimately transformative." He stated it was "in every material sense, a success." The IMF team also called the period a significant milestone. However, economic experts warn that impressive numbers can hide underlying structural weaknesses. The economy is likened to a tripod with three legs: fiscal management (government spending and revenue), structural or real economy (production through farms, factories, and services), and monetary management (central bank actions on prices and currency). Ghana's recovery has heavily relied on the third leg, monetary policy, to support the first, government finances. The second leg, which builds actual wealth, remains underdeveloped.
The fight against inflation was largely spearheaded by the Bank of Ghana. High interest rates and a significant appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi played crucial roles. The cedi lost more than half its value in 2022. It then recovered strongly, gaining 37% against the US dollar by October 2025. This made it sub-Saharan Africa's best-performing currency over eight months. By April 2026, the cedi had appreciated by over 40%. Gross international reserves reached $12 billion, providing 5.8 months of import cover. The Bank of Ghana implemented its largest-ever rate cut in July 2025, reducing the Monetary Policy Rate from 28% to 25%. A stronger cedi makes imported goods cheaper, directly lowering domestic prices faster than interest rate hikes alone. It also influences expectations of businesses and individuals.
Despite these achievements, the burden has fallen heavily on the central bank. The fiscal leg, even with headline surpluses, relied on cutting spending. Parliament approved capital spending at 1.5% of GDP. However, reports suggest the government spent only about 0.5%, a shortfall of $1.1 billion in public investment. This is seen not as prudence but as a lack of necessary investment. The IMF has highlighted structural reforms as a key focus for its sixth review. The energy sector presents an urgent challenge. The IMF estimates an annual power sector shortfall of $2.2 billion. This stems from significant commercial and technical losses at the Electricity Company of Ghana and delayed tariff adjustments. In 2025 alone, the government paid $1.47 billion to clear old debts and restore World Bank guarantees. The energy sector's cumulative liabilities are in the tens of billions of cedis. The World Bank warns this could cost the government $2 billion annually by 2026, approximately 20% of the national budget. Issues like unmetered streetlights, power theft, and inefficient distribution networks drain funds. These resources could otherwise support education, roads, or agriculture.
Beyond energy, the broader economic hardware is missing. Cocoa, a major export, saw output drop to a 22-year low of 425,000 tonnes in 2023/24. Output is forecast to reach 650,000 tonnes in 2025/26 due to better weather and farm-gate prices. However, this shows the sector's vulnerability to external factors. Agriculture employs about one-third of the workforce and contributes a fifth of GDP. Its potential is limited by post-harvest losses, low mechanisation, and weak industry links. Manufacturing, a key driver of economic transformation, has declined. Value addition in manufacturing fell to 10.1% of GDP in 2024, down from the previous year. The informal sector, which employs nearly 80% of Ghanaians, contributes only 27% of GDP, indicating a significant productivity gap.