Ghana’s 2026 inflation outlook faces a risk from rising fuel costs, according to a disclosure by Deloitte in its monthly inflation report. High global oil prices will likely translate into elevated energy expenses and increased transport fares across the country. This development could prompt the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to slow the pace of its planned interest rate reductions.
These inflationary pressures stem from several factors beyond just fuel. The report indicates that food inflation may climb in the coming months due to seasonal reductions in the supply of staple crops. Key crops such as maize, rice, and cassava will see reduced availability, pushing up their prices. Similarly, non-food inflation is expected to increase from rising costs in housing, utilities like water, gas, electricity, and transport services.
This fits into a broader Ghanaian economic context where inflation has recently shown an upward blip. Inflation marginally increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.4% in April 2026. This marked the first increase after a consistent 15-month decline. The month-on-month inflation rate also accelerated, reaching 1.0% from 0.1% in March 2026. This was the highest monthly increase recorded since February 2025.
Deloitte stated in its report, “The pressures from potential exchange rate volatility affecting imported goods and upward adjustments in service costs could also heighten inflationary pressures on this sub-index.” This suggests that both international market dynamics and domestic service cost changes play a role. The year-on-year food inflation, however, saw a slight decrease to 2.2% from 2.3% in March 2026. This was driven by improved domestic supply conditions and stable cedi rates reducing import costs. In contrast, non-food inflation increased to 4.2% from 3.9% in March, mainly due to higher fuel prices and persistent structural rigidities in housing and utility sectors.
The BoG is expected to adopt a cautious stance in monetary policy amid these mounting inflationary pressures. Policy makers and markets will closely monitor global oil prices and their impact on domestic energy costs. Any significant shifts could lead to adjustments in interest rate decisions. The top five divisions experiencing the highest inflation rates in April 2026 included Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other fuels at 12.48%. Insurance and Financial Services recorded 7.9%, Education Services 7.5%, Restaurants and Accommodation Services 7.5%, and Recreation, Sports and Culture 4.8%. These figures highlight the broad impact of rising costs across various sectors of the economy.