Global oil stockpiles decreased by 250 million barrels in March and April. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported this record depletion, driven by the conflict in Iran.
Around 4 million barrels of oil per day were tapped from back-up supplies in April. This drawdown is a direct result of the war. Continued restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz significantly reduced supply.
This situation adds to Ghana’s economic concerns. Higher global oil prices directly impact fuel costs in Ghana. Fuel is a major component in the inflation basket, affecting businesses and households. Ghana’s petroleum product consumption totalled 7.45 billion litres in 2025. Rising oil prices could further strain the economy and contribute to inflation across various sectors.
The IEA called this an “unprecedented supply shock.” They noted that losses from Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels. More than 14 million barrels per day of oil are now shut in. Global oil supply declined by 1.8 million barrels per day in April. Total losses since February reached 12.8 million barrels per day.
The petrochemical and aviation sectors are currently most affected by these disruptions. Price spikes are expected, with a 4.5 million barrels per day plunge in refinery crude throughputs in the second quarter. The IEA further stated that “a weaker economic environment and demand-saving measures will increasingly impact fuel use.”
Meanwhile, OPEC, a group of major oil-exporting nations, cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast. The new forecast is 1.2 million barrels per day, down from 1.4 million barrels per day. This reduction reflects overall cuts to demand forecasts for the second, third, and fourth quarters of the year. Traders reduced their bets on higher oil prices, despite the supply shock. They engaged in “profit-taking from previously accumulated long positions” amidst “mixed geopolitical signals and potential de-escalation.”
Brent Crude, a key international oil benchmark, peaked at around $140 a barrel in April. The physical delivery price crossed above $141 at the height of tensions. As of Wednesday, Brent crude traded at $107.43, showing a slight decrease. Maintaining prices above $100 has created worries about an inflation shock. This shock could spread through the global economy due to higher energy costs.
However, the IEA also noted increased supply from outside the Middle East. Producers in other regions pushed output higher. Their exports reached record levels in response to the crisis. For example, supply growth expectations from the Americas increased by more than 600,000 barrels per day. They are now projected to average 1.5 million barrels per day. Russia’s crude oil exports have also risen. Attacks on its refineries cut domestic use, leading to higher shipments. The United States temporarily waived sanctions on Russian oil on water.
Ghana’s government lost over GHS 600 million in taxes from unaccounted petroleum products. The monthly indicator of economic growth slowed to 7.5% in January 2026. These trends highlight the importance of stable oil prices for Ghana's economy. The ongoing global oil supply challenges could worsen existing fiscal pressures and dampen economic growth projections.
Policy makers in Ghana will closely monitor global oil prices. Any sustained rise could necessitate difficult decisions regarding fuel subsidies or taxes. Businesses will also need to prepare for higher operational costs. The global situation could impact Ghana’s inflation rates and overall economic stability in the coming months.