Ghana's economy is projected to expand by 4.8% in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
This growth forecast follows an estimated 6% expansion in 2025. The IMF also predicts that Ghana’s inflation will slow sharply to 5.8% in 2026, down from 14.2% in 2025. These figures were released in the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook report, titled “Global Economy in the Shadow of War”. The report highlights Ghana's improving macroeconomic stability amidst a challenging global environment.
The global economic landscape faces significant pressures from rising geopolitical tensions, increased military spending, and fragmentation in global trade. The IMF’s outlook suggests these factors force countries to balance security priorities with fiscal stability and long-term growth. Global growth is projected at 2.7% in 2026, a decrease from post-pandemic rebound levels. Advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026, while emerging markets and developing economies will see 3.4% growth.
“Geoeconomic fragmentation and escalating trade restrictions are increasingly shaping global economic outcomes,” the IMF report noted. This fragmentation affects investment decisions and disrupts global production networks. The report also highlights that higher defense spending creates significant fiscal challenges for many nations. Roughly half of the world's countries increased military spending over the past five years.
The IMF warns that defense buildups typically raise fiscal deficits by about 2.6 percentage points of GDP within three years. Public debt can also increase by roughly 7 percentage points over the same period. While defense spending can boost economic activity in the short term, it creates medium-term fiscal pressures. This increased spending can also divert resources from crucial social programs. Countries raising military expenditure may also experience worsening external balances as they import more military equipment and technology.
Sub-Saharan Africa, in contrast, is projected to grow by 4.3% in 2026. Stronger domestic demand and easing inflation in several economies support this regional growth. Nigeria is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2026, with inflation easing to 16%. South Africa’s economy is forecast to expand by just 1%.
The IMF urged governments to preserve fiscal sustainability and maintain macroeconomic stability. It also called for structural reforms aimed at boosting productivity and strengthening economic resilience. These measures are critical for supporting long-term growth in an increasingly fragmented global economy. Decision-makers in Ghana will need to monitor these global trends closely. They must continue to implement policies that support the country's projected growth and manage inflation effectively.