Ghana's economy is expected to grow by 5% in 2026, according to projections from the African Development Bank (AfDB). This growth trajectory is anticipated to strengthen further, reaching 5.4% by 2027.
This forecast reinforces expectations of a gradual macroeconomic recovery in Ghana. The anticipated improvement follows several years of economic challenges, including significant fiscal stress, high inflation, and vulnerability in the external economic sector. Fiscal consolidation, the easing of inflationary pressures, and better external balances are driving this positive outlook.
This AfDB projection places Ghana slightly above the 4.8% growth estimates from both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The AfDB's more optimistic view suggests a stronger recovery path for Ghana. The country is also expected to perform better than the West African regional average growth of 4.7% in 2026. This reflects stronger domestic activity and improved macroeconomic conditions within Ghana.
The African Development Bank detailed its projections in its 2026 African Economic Outlook Report. The report also forecasts a significant moderation in Ghana's inflation rate, expecting it to close 2026 at 9%. This would mark a major shift from the elevated inflation that has weakened household purchasing power and increased business costs in recent years. The AfDB also foresees Ghana's fiscal deficit narrowing from 2.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026 to 2.2% in 2027. This reflects ongoing consolidation measures and tighter expenditure management within the government.
Additionally, Ghana is expected to maintain a resilient current account position, a crucial measure of trade balance. The AfDB projects a current account surplus of 3% of GDP in 2026, moderating slightly to 2.7% in 2027. This indicates growing resilience in Ghana's external economic sector, despite persistent uncertainties in the global economy. The improved outlook comes as Ghana continues its economic adjustment process, including an IMF-supported programme initiated in 2023 and the restructuring of both domestic and external debt. The government aims to rebuild investor confidence and restore fiscal credibility.
However, the AfDB cautioned that global risks could affect Ghana's recovery. Rising geopolitical tensions, high oil and fertiliser prices, and prolonged supply chain disruptions remain potential threats. Ghana is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on imported fuel, food items, machinery, and other essential goods. Any sudden increase in global commodity prices could impact inflation, the exchange rate, and the government's fiscal position. The durability of Ghana's economic recovery will depend on sustained policy discipline, effective revenue mobilisation, controlled government spending, and exchange rate stability. The recovery will also be measured by tangible improvements in living conditions, the avoidance of new arrears in fiscal consolidation, and the recovery of private-sector credit. Ghana now has an opportunity to convert stabilisation into broad-based growth, stronger job creation, improved investor sentiment, and a stable fiscal framework to prevent future debt vulnerabilities.