Ghana's projected 5.7% economic growth rate for 2026 is achievable, but its sustainability depends on a significant shift towards private sector-led development. This assessment comes from Professor Williams Kwasi Peprah, a Professor of Finance at Andrews University in the United States.
Professor Peprah highlights that while rising commodity prices and increased economic activities, such as road construction, currently support growth, Ghana must strengthen its manufacturing, agriculture, and agro-processing sectors. This strategic shift is crucial to protect the economy from external price shocks and ensure long-term expansion. He argues that greater private sector involvement, especially in adding value to locally produced raw materials, will make the projected growth more resilient.
This perspective fits into Ghana's broader economic narrative of diversifying away from primary commodity exports and building a more robust industrial base. The nation has historically faced economic volatility due to its dependence on raw material prices, particularly cocoa and gold. Previous economic plans have often stressed the need for industrialization and local value addition to create jobs and stabilize revenue streams. Achieving the 5.7% growth target would mark a significant recovery and progress towards national development goals.
“It’s achievable. However, if you ask me, I would want to see it being driven by more private sector-led than commodities,” Professor Peprah stated in an interview monitored by The High Street Journal. He further explained, “We all know the impact of price volatility on the commodity market.” This statement underscores the vulnerability of commodity-dependent economies to global market fluctuations.
Moving forward, policymakers and businesses must focus on creating an environment that encourages private sector investment in manufacturing and agro-processing. This includes improving access to finance, enhancing infrastructure, and providing clear regulatory frameworks. The response from the government and the private sector to these recommendations will determine if Ghana can transition from commodity-driven growth to a more diversified, value-added economy. Sustained growth beyond 2026 will hinge on these foundational changes.
Professor Peprah acknowledged that current economic conditions and increased productive activity could support the projected expansion. He explained that economic growth relies on both price movements and output. Productivity-enhancing activities contribute to increased production and overall economic performance. He cited road construction as an example of productive investment with multiple economic effects. These developments provide grounds for optimism about the International Monetary Fund’s 5.7% growth projection for Ghana in 2026. However, he cautioned against heavy reliance on favourable commodity prices. Such reliance makes the expansion vulnerable to volatility in international markets. Growth supported largely by favourable commodity prices may prove temporary if the country fails to build stronger domestic productive capacity.
Professor Peprah believes Ghana must increasingly process its agricultural products locally. This approach avoids primary reliance on exporting raw commodities. He identified cocoa and other agricultural products as key opportunities. Expanding domestic manufacturing in these areas creates additional economic value. It also strengthens the contribution of agro-businesses to national output. Greater investment in processing and manufacturing helps businesses create more value from existing production. This also supports broader economic activity across supply chains. The challenge for Ghana is not simply to achieve the projected 5.7% growth rate. It is to establish the productive foundations needed to sustain it. “If we can add value to cocoa, the other products we produce from agriculture, then this 5.7% will become more realistic,” he said. “If not, it’s going to be a one-time event, and then we will come back to reduction in GDP growth.” Without a stronger private sector contribution and greater value addition, the current expansion could be short-lived. This would leave the economy vulnerable to another slowdown.