Fitch Solutions projects Ghana's annual average inflation will reach 11.3% in 2027. This represents a significant increase from the 4.7% average forecast for 2026. The UK-based firm highlighted several key drivers for this anticipated rise in consumer prices.
The expected surge in inflation stems from a combination of factors. These include fading support for the Ghana cedi's exchange rate, modest loosening of government spending policies, and strong growth in the money supply. Broad money supply growth already exceeded nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth by 17.1 percentage points in the second quarter of 2026. This rapid expansion of money in circulation often leads to higher prices.
This forecast places Ghana's economic stability under renewed scrutiny, following recent efforts to bring inflation down from record highs. The country has been navigating a challenging economic period, with the Bank of Ghana actively implementing monetary policy measures to stabilize prices. The projected increase in 2027 suggests a potential reversal of some of these hard-won gains, impacting household budgets and business planning. Ghana's reliance on imported goods means exchange rate fluctuations directly affect local prices.
Fitch Solutions also noted that a strong El Niño event, expected to peak in late 2026, will contribute to global food price increases. This will likely add to imported inflationary pressures within Ghana during 2027. The firm stated, "As inflation accelerates and breaches the 10% mark in Q2 [quarter 2 2027], we expect the BoG to begin tightening, raising the policy rate by a cumulative 200bps [200 basis points] by year-end." This indicates a proactive response from the central bank.
Looking ahead, the Bank of Ghana will likely tighten its monetary policy to combat the rising inflation. This means increasing the policy rate, which is the interest rate at which commercial banks borrow from the central bank. Higher policy rates typically make borrowing more expensive, slowing economic activity and curbing price increases. A further escalation of tensions in the Middle East could also push energy prices higher, adding to Ghana's fuel costs and overall inflation.
Fitch Solutions also forecasts a narrowing of Ghana's current account surplus, from 7.9% of GDP in 2026 to 5.3% in 2027. This is due to a modest decline in gold prices from US$4,400 per ounce to US$4,200 per ounce. Additionally, cocoa production is expected to decline by 9.1% due to El Niño-related weather disruptions. These commodity price and production changes will impact Ghana's foreign exchange earnings. Policymakers will likely aim to maintain a positive real interest rate to attract foreign investment, especially as the Bank of Ghana targets 15 months of import cover by 2028.