Ghana concluded its International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Credit Facility program in July 2026 with stronger economic buffers. The nation recorded 6% real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter of 2026. Inflation ended September 2026 at 5.2%, significantly lower than the 9.4% recorded a year earlier. The primary surplus reached 1.4% of GDP by July 2026, indicating improved fiscal performance.
Despite these encouraging figures, Ghana's economic recovery faces a critical test. The country must now maintain stability without direct financial support from the IMF. This transition occurs as oil prices, currency pressures, and deferred government spending converge. The cedi, Ghana's currency, has surrendered some of its significant appreciation from 2025, adding to economic uncertainties.
This period marks a crucial institutional test for Ghana's economic management. The country has shifted to a 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) with the IMF. This PCI maintains twice-yearly reviews and 26 reform targets but provides no new program money. Ghana's ability to demonstrate fiscal discipline independently will be closely watched, especially given the upcoming debt maturities.
SIC Brokerage's third-quarter macroeconomic review highlighted these dynamics. The report noted that the economy has "held its ground" rather than gaining new ground. This assessment underscores the delicate balance Ghana must maintain to sustain its progress. The quality of fiscal outperformance is particularly important, as revenue targets were met, but expenditure ran below plan.
Fiscal performance has been supported mainly by expenditure running below plan. For instance, revenue matched the GHS 65.9 billion target by the second quarter. However, expenditure was GHS 63.3 billion against a programmed GHS 74.1 billion. Capital expenditure reached 79% of its quarterly target, while arrears clearance achieved only 39% of its plan. This suggests that some fiscal gains stem from underspending rather than robust revenue generation across all sectors.
Revenue composition also presents a warning sign. Company taxes exceeded their quarterly target by 24%, boosted by profitability in the gold sector. Conversely, value-added tax fell 11% short of its target. Excise collections missed their target by 61%, and oil revenue was 23% below plan. This uneven revenue performance indicates vulnerabilities in the government's income streams.
The government appears likely to meet its headline fiscal targets for 2026. With a primary surplus of 1.4% of GDP by July, only about 0.1% more is needed to reach the full-year commitment-basis target of 1.5%. The cash deficit ceiling of 4% of GDP also seems secure. These targets provide a short-term sense of stability, but longer-term challenges loom.
A more serious fiscal challenge lies beyond December 2026. Ghana faces significant domestic debt maturities in the coming years. GHS 58 billion of domestic debt exchange bonds mature in 2027. Another GHS 53 billion will mature in 2028. The Sinking Fund held GHS 15.6 billion by late July, against an end-year target of GHS 30 billion. This fund provides a buffer but does not eliminate the substantial refinancing risk.
Public debt has also increased, rising to 45.9% of GDP by July 2026 from 44.7% at the end of 2025. Part of this increase reflects the weaker cedi, which raises the domestic value of external obligations. Ghana has moved to a moderate risk of debt distress, but the trajectory of debt must be carefully monitored to prevent future crises.
Inflation offers the clearest evidence of progress, with the September rate of 5.2% well within the Bank of Ghana's 6% to 10% target band. Imported inflation remained near 2% despite currency depreciation, and underlying price pressure stayed contained. However, the direction shifted during the quarter, rising from 4.6% in July to 5.2% in September.
Services inflation remained high, between 8.3% and 8.6%. Housing, utilities, rent, transport fares, and other locally generated costs drove this increase. The report characterizes inflation as "a home-grown, services story." This distinction is crucial because domestic service prices often reverse more slowly than imported goods prices. Electricity and water tariff increases, expensive crude oil, and higher transport costs can become embedded in rents, wages, and operating expenses, making inflation more persistent.
SIC Brokerage expects inflation to finish 2026 between 5.5% and 7.5%, most likely around 6%. The balance of risks is upward, especially if Brent crude oil remains above US$100 a barrel and the cedi weakens beyond GHS 12 to the dollar. This outlook explains why the Bank of Ghana held its policy rate at 14% for three consecutive meetings. The real policy rate, at about 8.8%, offers protection against renewed inflation and currency weakness, but vigilance is essential.