Ghana's Finance Minister, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, faces the challenge of surpassing World Bank fiscal deficit projections for the coming years. This follows an impressive reduction in the country's deficit during 2025, which saw Ghana achieve the largest improvement among Sub-Saharan African nations.
The World Bank's latest Africa Economic Update indicates Ghana's fiscal deficit will widen to 2.2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. These projections come after Ghana's deficit dramatically declined from 8.1% of GDP in 2024 to 1.2% in 2025. This 6.9-percentage-point reduction significantly outpaced Burkina Faso, which recorded the region's second-largest improvement at 4 percentage points.
This fiscal consolidation is crucial for Ghana's broader economic stability and its ongoing efforts to manage public debt. The country's debt-to-GDP ratio also saw a substantial fall, decreasing from 70.3% in 2024 to 48.8% in 2025. Sustaining these gains is vital for investor confidence and reducing government borrowing needs, aligning with the government's long-term economic recovery plan.
Data and Policy Analyst Alfred Appiah has expressed confidence in Dr. Forson's ability to outperform the World Bank's forecasts. Appiah praised the Finance Minister and his team for the fiscal turnaround, calling it impressive both domestically and regionally. He stated, "The World Bank already expects the deficit to widen to 2.2% this year and 2.9% by 2027. We would expect Ato to beat those projections."
Achieving a better outcome than projected will require the government to maintain strong revenue mobilisation and strict expenditure control. It also means avoiding the fiscal slippages that have undermined previous consolidation efforts. Decision-makers must balance spending pressures with the need to support economic growth and create jobs. A smaller-than-projected deficit would strengthen investor confidence, ease government borrowing requirements, and preserve progress in reducing public debt. The quality of this consolidation, ensuring it does not undermine productive investment, will be critical for Ghana's economic future.