Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) warns of a very strong El Niño, likely to bring a hotter, drier dry season to Ghana, with heat stress expected to peak between February and April 2027.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center puts the chance of the event reaching very strong intensity between November and January at about 96%. GMet forecasts below-normal rainfall across much of Ghana from October to December.
The main risks from November to April are a hotter and drier dry season, bushfires, water stress, and dust. Localised heavy rain and flooding remain possible even where seasonal rainfall is expected to be below normal. GMet says the usual dry-season meningitis risk in the north could be compounded by heat and dryness.
Ghana’s past El Niño years include the very strong events of 1982/83 and 1997/98, both followed by power rationing, and 2015/16. In the moderate event of 2023/24, Ghana’s cocoa output fell by an estimated 20%. The agency is calling for a National El Niño and Dry-Season Preparedness Task Force to report to Cabinet monthly through the peak risk period.
GMet wants to pre-position drought-tolerant seed and meningitis vaccines, replenish NADMO’s relief stocks, and run a national public awareness campaign. The agency will issue updated forecasts for the 2027 rainy seasons early next year. Richard Sena Quashie, a journalist, reports on the story.
The El Niño-sensitive period for hydropower is the 2027 inflow season, which will determine generation in 2028. The 2027 rainy seasons are uncertain, with late and weak rains possible if El Niño fades slowly or the Gulf of Guinea stays cool. Above-normal rain in the north, flooding, and spillage from the Volta dams become more likely if La Niña develops by mid-2027.