Fitch Solutions maintains nearly 6% growth rate for Ghana in 2026, but expects economy to lose momentum in 2027.
The Ghanaian economy has remained largely insulated from global developments over the past year, supported by elevated gold prices, low domestic inflation, and the transmission of the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) 1,400 basis points easing cycle. Ghana remains broadly net neutral in oil trade thanks to the Jubilee and TEN offshore fields.
The current account surplus will remain sizeable at 5.3% of GDP in 2027, supporting Ghana’s reserve position and limiting exchange-rate depreciation. Fitch Solutions expects the economy to lose some momentum, with growth slowing from 5.9% in 2026 to 4.7% in 2027. This will be caused in part by inflation rising from an annual average of 4.7% in 2026 to 11.3% in 2027.
The Ghanaian economy is expected to be affected by inflation and slower credit growth as the BoG resumes monetary tightening. For most Sub-Saharan African economies, a more persistent inflationary environment will erode purchasing power and weigh on private consumption and business activity, creating a headwind to growth in 2027.
The BoG’s easing cycle has supported the economy, but the expected slowdown in 2027 will be a challenge.
According to Fitch Solutions, gold prices are expected to remain elevated at US$4,200/oz, supporting Ghana’s export earnings. The oil trade deficit is expected to remain low at 0.3% of GDP in Q2 2026. The expected slowdown in 2027 will be driven by inflation and slower credit growth, which will weigh on domestic demand.
Fitch Solutions pointed out that these factors will weigh on domestic demand, creating a headwind to growth in 2027. The Ghanaian economy will need to adapt to the expected slowdown in 2027, and the government will need to implement policies to support growth and reduce inflation. The Bank of Ghana will play a crucial role in managing the economy and maintaining stability.