Ghana is preparing a budget with a different promise. After years of debt restructuring and spending restraint, the government wants to turn economic stability into jobs, investment and higher production.
The repayments coming due in 2027 will compete for the same public money.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the final review of Ghana’s US$3 billion Extended Credit Facility in July. Its successor, the Policy Coordination Instrument, provides monitoring without new financing. The coming budget must show how Ghana intends to sustain its recovery while paying for its next phase of development.
September inflation was 5.2%, while provisional public debt stood at 45% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in June. The government proposes lowering the primary surplus on a commitment basis from 1.5% to 0.5% of GDP from 2027. A primary surplus is the excess of revenue over spending before interest payments.
The government has announced GHS58 billion of Domestic Debt Exchange Programme bond maturities in 2027 and another GHS53 billion in 2028. The Ministry of Finance reports a first-half primary surplus of 0.9% of GDP on a commitment basis. Yet capital spending was 39.3% below plan, while net arrears clearance reached only 38.2% of the programmed amount.
The Fiscal Strategy Document proposes investment equivalent to 1.5% of GDP annually for four years, approximately US$10 billion. The budget must now show what the money will be used for.
Which projects are ready to begin? Who will implement them, and when should the public expect results?
The IMF’s July review recorded a waiver linked to cost-sharing under the domestic gold purchase programme and reaffirmed the commitment to recapitalise the Bank of Ghana by 2032. These issues need an explanation of their cost and financing.