Ghana's food inflation increased by 1.7 percentage points between March and September. The Middle East crisis has significantly affected global fuel and other import prices.
Headline inflation increased by two percentage points during the same period.
The economic management team has been leveraging the USD/GHS exchange rate to maintain price stability. However, a prolonged Middle East crisis could reverse this trend. Ghanaians may experience another episode of sharp currency depreciation, similar to what was witnessed at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Ghana's food market has become highly volatile over the past three decades. Food inflation is averaging around 8.9% over the long run, with a baseline volatility of 4.9%. The nation experienced major price shocks in 2001 and 2023, with a long period of stability between the two crisis periods.
A specialist in Applied Econometrics and Agribusiness has assessed the potential inflationary pressures on local food prices. The data show strong inflation inertia, with a 1 percentage point increase in the previous month's food inflation automatically carrying over to increase the current month's inflation by 0.49 percentage points.
The impact of fuel prices on food inflation is significant. A 1 GHS spike in diesel prices triggers an aggressive pass-through, increasing food inflation by 1.67 percentage points. A 1 GHS increase in petrol prices can trigger a surge of 1.41 percentage points in food inflation.
The purchasing power of cocoa farmers has been eroded due to recent upticks in month-to-month inflation. In July 2026, an initial assessment indicated that the government needed to adjust the cocoa producer price upward by approximately GHS 1,000 to compensate for severe purchasing power losses.