The Bank of Ghana's policy rate of 14.0% is 8.5 percentage points above October's inflation of 5.5%, the Ghana Statistical Service's latest figure. That real rate is lower than a year ago, when a 21.5% policy rate sat 13.5 points above 8.0% inflation, but it is still steep.
Inflation has now been below the bottom of the Bank's 8% ± 2 target band for 11 months in a row, since December 2025. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets from Monday 16 November and announces its decision on Wednesday 18 November.
Markets have moved well ahead of the Bank. The 91-day Treasury bill yielded 4.56% at the 9 November auction, 9.4 points below the policy rate and below inflation itself. Average bank lending rates fell from 22.2% in October 2025 to 15.94% in October 2026, the Budget Statement says.
Private-sector credit grew 35.5% in the year to August, according to the MPC's September statement. At that meeting the committee held at 14.0% unanimously; one member wrote that "current domestic conditions support some policy easing" but that external risks "warrant caution".
The Bank's core measure, which strips out energy and utilities, was 4.2% in August.
The catch is that October's rise came from things a rate cut would not touch, and things the Bank had flagged. Services inflation jumped to 11.5% from 8.3%, and transport prices rose 8.0% in a single month after the 8% lorry-fare increase from 26 September. Members cited oil "around US$100 per barrel" as a risk; Brent was US$92.14 on 11 November.
The cedi was down 10.1% against the dollar to end-October. And the Bank's own forecast has inflation rising into the band over the next few quarters, which is an argument for patience.
One official claim needs correcting before the decision. The 2027 Budget Statement (para 547) says 5.5% inflation is "within the end-year target band". It is not: the band runs from 6% to 10%, and the Bank of Ghana's own statements describe inflation as below its lower bound.
For borrowers, the question on Wednesday is whether the policy rate catches up with the market. For savers, the 91-day bill already pays less than inflation.
Related: 91-day Treasury bill yields 4.56%, below 5.5% inflation; October inflation, 5.5%; Bank of Ghana policy-rate table.