GH¢100.4bn capex plan would top the interest bill for the first full year since 2013

The 2027 Budget plans GH¢100.4 billion of capital spending and GH¢61.0 billion of interest payments, according to the Ministry of Finance's Appendix 3A table. If that happens, it will be the first full year since 2013 in which Ghana spends more on building than on servicing its debt.

That claim has been going round on X. StatsGH checked it against the ministry's own annual fiscal data. It holds, with two catches.

What the record shows

In 2013 capital spending was GH¢4.79 billion and interest GH¢4.40 billion, provisional outturns show. That was the last full year capex came out on top, and only just.

From 2014 to 2025, interest beat capex every year. Over those 12 years Ghana paid GH¢305.9 billion in interest and spent GH¢156.6 billion on capital projects. The low point came in 2018, when capex was worth just 30% of the interest bill.

In 2025 interest was GH¢49.9 billion and capex GH¢20.2 billion, or 41% of interest.

Capex vs interest, GH¢bn

Full-year provisional outturns, 2012–2025. Hatched: 2026 projection and 2027 Budget plan.

InterestCapital expenditureProjection/plan (2026–27)

100

120

Projection/plan

60.96

100.41

2013: capex 4.79 vs interest 4.40,
the last full year capex was higher

’12

’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

’18

’19

’20

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

’26

’27

Source: MoF Fiscal Data workbooks (provisional outturns); 2027 Budget App. 2A and 3A. 2012 is from the 2012 workbook; the 2013 workbook later revised 2012 capex to GH¢3.58bn.

The 2027 plan flips that. Planned capex is 165% of planned interest.

It is also 97% higher than the GH¢50.9 billion the ministry now projects for capex in 2026. Interest rises only 5.6%.

The two catches

First, it is a plan. Capital budgets often slip. In 2025 the revised budget set capex at GH¢32.7 billion and the outturn was GH¢20.2 billion, 62% of the plan.

Second, the crossover has already started. Between January and October 2026, capex was GH¢41.4 billion and interest GH¢38.8 billion, the Budget's Appendix 2A shows.

But for the whole of 2026 the ministry projects interest of GH¢57.7 billion against capex of GH¢50.9 billion. So 2026 is not expected to be the first full year.

The Budget itself uses different capex totals. Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson told Parliament the Budget "allocates GH¢98.3 billion for capital expenditure". Elsewhere the speech gives GH¢100.4 billion, which matches the appendix.

StatsGH uses the appendix figure because its domestic and foreign components add up. StatsGH reported the GH¢98.3 billion, GH¢98.4 billion and GH¢100.4 billion discrepancy on 13 November. Either figure is well above GH¢61 billion.

What people on X are saying

@moneymuseafrica wrote: "For the first time since 2013, Ghana plans to spend more on building (GH¢100.4bn) than on interest (GH¢61bn)." The data support that as a full-year plan.

@ProfLordMensah called the shift "historic" and said capital at 26.4% of total expenditure was "unprecedented". In each year's provisional outturn from 2012 to 2025, capex never went above 22.4% of total expenditure. On the appendix figures, 2027 would be 26.8%.

@gash4eva attributed "For the first time, we are investing MORE in building Ghana than on interest payments and wages" to the minister. StatsGH did not find the words "first time" about capital spending in the Budget Statement or speech.

Starr FM reported, and @ghonetv shared, that capex "exceeds interest payments".

Limitations

Figures for 2012 to 2025 are provisional outturns from each year's ministry workbook and may since have been revised. The 2013 workbook revises 2012 capex to GH¢3.58 billion from GH¢4.62 billion in the 2012 file; that would leave 2014's 19.1% as the highest capex share of total expenditure in 2012–25, still well below 26.8%.

Interest dipped in 2023, to GH¢29.3 billion from GH¢45.7 billion in 2022, which flatters that year's ratio. Capex here excludes capital spending through transfers to other government units; including it, the Budget gives GH¢120.5 billion for 2027.

Ministry of Finance Fiscal Data files also exist for 2009–2011; we did not open them. The "first full year since 2013" claim does not depend on those earlier years.

GH¢100.4bn capex plan would top the interest bill for the first full year since 2013

What the record shows

The two catches

What people on X are saying

Limitations

Sources

Comments

Figures used

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