Ghana's 2027 Budget assumes crude oil will fetch US$74.93 a barrel next year. Brent, the international benchmark for Ghana's crude, was US$92.14 on 11 November, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
That is US$17.21, or 23.0%, higher. If prices stay anywhere near today's level, petroleum receipts are more likely to beat the budget's US$1,128.6 million (about GHS 13.2 billion at the Bank of Ghana's 12 November mid-rate of GHS 11.71) than to miss it.
The figure is lower than the law's own formula. The seven-year moving average in the Petroleum Revenue Management Act produced US$80.46. The ministry used section 17 of the Act to recommend a lower price, arguing that the formula "could result in a gross over-projection of petroleum revenue".
Its alternative is built from ICE Brent futures for 2027 delivery, averaged over five days from 5 to 11 August 2026. It sits 6.9% below the statutory price and 14.3% below the IMF's October forecast of US$87.39 for 2027, which the 2027 Budget Statement itself quotes.
The numbers that hang on it are modest by Ghana's standards. Benchmark output is 37.40 million barrels, about 102,465 barrels a day. Receipts split into US$156.6 million of royalties, US$404.2 million of carried and participating interest and US$566.8 million of corporate income tax.
After US$177.7 million goes to GNPC, the Benchmark Revenue is US$950.9 million (about GHS 11.1 billion). Seventy per cent, US$665.6 million, funds the budget directly; US$285.3 million goes to the petroleum funds, split US$199.7 million to the Stabilisation Fund and US$85.6 million to the Heritage Fund.
One line in the tables deserves a second look. The ministry sets a 2027 gas price of US$7.93 per million British thermal units, using the statutory seven-year formula, and puts benchmark gas output at 148.10 trillion Btu. Yet Table 7 shows a dash, not a number, for gas royalties and for gas carried and participating interest in every year from 2027 to 2030.
Every dollar of projected receipts is attributed to crude. The statement does not explain the blank. Either the gas is committed elsewhere or it is not expected to earn the state anything directly; readers deserve to know which.
To give a sense of scale: the state's own share of output, the Ghana Group share, is 7.48 million barrels. At Wednesday's Brent price each of those barrels is worth US$17.21 more than the budget assumes, or about US$128.7 million across a year.
That is StatsGH arithmetic, not a forecast. It ignores the GNPC carve-out, tax effects, costs and the discount or premium Ghana's crude grades fetch against Brent.
Now the catch. Oil has been anything but steady. EIA data show Brent averaged US$123.93 in October and peaked at US$138.21 on 7 April.
It has fallen 23.3% since 30 October, when it stood at US$120.15. A year ago it was US$63.86. A price that can move by a quarter in a fortnight can move back down to the benchmark just as fast.
Oil also cuts both ways for Ghana. The Budget Statement says oil imports rose to US$5.4 billion in the first nine months of 2026, from US$3.7 billion a year earlier. It blames higher crude prices, along with base effects and utility tariffs, for pushing inflation up from 3.2% in March to 5.5% in October.
A cautious benchmark protects the budget. It does not protect motorists.
The longer view is less comfortable still. The budget's medium-term table has receipts shrinking 34.8% to US$736.0 million by 2030, as benchmark output falls to 26.57 million barrels and the assumed price eases to US$72.93. And Ghana's exports remain narrow: gold, cocoa and crude made up 90.4% of export receipts to September, with gold alone at 69.9%.
The ministry's own risk section says temporary windfalls "must not become the basis for permanent expenditure commitments". A low oil benchmark is one way of keeping that promise. Whether any windfall is saved or spent is the test that comes later.