Ghana's government spent GHS 235.1 billion in the first ten months of 2026, GHS 24.0 billion (US$2.05 billion) or 9.3% less than planned, the 2027 Budget Statement shows.
Revenue beat its target by GHS 7.5 billion. The underspend was more than three times the revenue windfall, and it explains most of why the overall deficit was 1.0% of GDP against a target of 3.0%.
More than half of the saving was luck and earlier discipline rather than restraint this year. Interest payments were GHS 38.8 billion, GHS 12.7 billion below target and 12.0% lower than a year earlier, as domestic borrowing costs fell (the 91-day bill paid 4.56% this week, against 10.93% a year ago). Non-interest spending was GHS 11.3 billion under budget.
Capital spending rose 251.0% on 2025 to GHS 41.4 billion but still missed its GHS 45.3 billion target, mainly because donor-funded projects spent only GHS 3.5 billion of GHS 7.7 billion programmed. Social benefits were 41.8% below plan, and GHS 3.5 billion less of old arrears was cleared than budgeted.
The Bank of Ghana's September MPC statement showed the same pattern earlier: a deficit of 0.2% of GDP to July, against 1.9% targeted.
The catch is on the revenue side, where the headline flatters. Total revenue and grants of GHS 219.3 billion were 26.6% higher than a year earlier and 3.5% above target. But tax revenue was GHS 2.1 billion short.
VAT fell GHS 5.3 billion (12.1%) below its target and excise duties GHS 3.3 billion (35.7%) below theirs. Company taxes (GHS 6.0 billion over) and non-tax revenue (GHS 7.6 billion over) filled the gap.
And the government refunded GHS 2.8 billion of tax against GHS 7.1 billion programmed; without that GHS 4.3 billion of unpaid refunds, the revenue beat shrinks to about GHS 3.2 billion. Refunds owed are, in effect, a loan from businesses.
None of this means the budget is off track: the primary surplus of 1.4% of GDP is close to the 1.5% full-year goal. But a deficit that shrinks because projects stall and refunds wait is weaker than one built on taxes collected.
The 2027 plan widens the deficit to 2.9% of GDP and leans on GHS 255.8 billion of non-oil tax. October's VAT shortfall is the line to watch.
Related: 2027 Budget: US$10 billion New Economy programme; 91-day Treasury bill yields 4.56%, below 5.5% inflation.