Economy

    Inflation 5.5% at Forson's 22-month mark, against 9.5% at the same point under Ofori-Atta

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    Kofi Bentil says Ken Ofori-Atta had the better first two years. On official figures, inflation and import cover favour Forson. Ofori-Atta's first year grew faster. The inflation readings sit on different CPI series.

    Headline inflation was 5.5% in October 2026, Cassiel Ato Forson's 22nd month as Finance Minister, counting January 2025 as month one. At the same point in Ken Ofori-Atta's tenure, October 2018, it was 9.5%. Both figures appear in each minister's own November budget statement.

    Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) confirms the October 2026 rate on the current 2021=100 series, as in our earlier report. The 2018 reading is from an older CPI series, so the two rates are not strictly like-for-like.

    The comparison is prompted by a remark on TV3's Key Points on Saturday 14 November. Kofi Bentil, vice-president of IMANI Africa, said, in a TV3 (@tv3_ghana) clip: "The first two years of Ato Forson compared to the first two years of Ofori-Atta, Ofori-Atta did better." He added: "Ato is a fantastic minister, but two years is not enough to call finality on anybody's record," 3News and Ghana Guardian report.

    Neither names the measures he used. StatsGH has not asked him, or either minister, for a comment.

    What the official numbers show

    Inflation. The 2019 Budget has Ofori-Atta inheriting 15.4% in December 2016 and reaching 9.5% by October 2018, a 5.9-point fall. Forson inherited 23.8% in December 2024.

    GSS and the 2027 Budget put the rate at 5.4% by December 2025 and 5.5% in October 2026, a fall of 18.3 points. He started much higher, so a larger fall was always more likely, but the lower end-point crosses a CPI rebase.

    Growth. Ofori-Atta leads in year one. Real GDP grew 8.1% in 2017, after the 2018 rebase, against 6.0% in 2025. In the first half of year two the order flips: 5.4% in 2018, against 6.2% in 2026.

    Primary balance (revenue minus spending, before interest). The ministry's fiscal-data outturns put 2017 at a surplus of 0.6% of GDP and 2018 at 1.4%. The 2017 figure uses pre-rebasing GDP, and neither year's workbook states a cash or commitment basis.

    For 2025 they show 2.6% on a commitment basis, 0.5% on a cash basis, and 1.3% excluding independent-power and financial-sector costs. The 2027 Budget and the 2026 Mid-Year Review give 2.5% for 2025, the commitment outturn, rounded.

    In the first part of year two, January–September 2018 was 0.5% of rebased GDP in the 2019 Budget (later workbook: 0.7%); January–October 2026 was 1.4% on a commitment basis. The spans and bases differ.

    Reserves. Gross reserves covered 3.6 months of imports in September 2018 and 4.5 months in September 2026. The 2027 Budget gives two dollar amounts for that later date, US$12.7 billion and US$12.1 billion, but both are described as 4.5 months of cover, as StatsGH has reported.

    Two years in, on the ministers' own numbers
    Ofori-Atta Forson
    3
    6
    9
    12 0
    9.5
    5.5
    8.1
    6.0
    5.4
    6.2
    3.6
    4.5
    Inflation at
    month 22 (%)
    Real GDP growth
    year one (%)
    Real GDP growth
    H1 year two (%)
    Reserves Sept of
    year two (months)

    Inflation start points were 15.4% (December 2016, older CPI series) and 23.8% (December 2024, 2021=100). The inflation bars are not strictly like-for-like. Source: Ministry of Finance, 2019, 2020 and 2027 Budget Statements and 2026 Mid-Year Review; Ghana Statistical Service, October 2026 CPI (Forson inflation).

    What it means

    On inflation and reserves, the official record two years in favours Forson, with the CPI-series caveat. On first-year growth, it favours Ofori-Atta. The first-year primary balance favours Forson on the 2025 commitment outturn, but not clearly on cash, and the 2017 basis is unstated.

    Starting points differed. Forson took over after the 2022 debt crisis, as his budget statement recounts. Ofori-Atta inherited a 2016 deficit of 9.3% of GDP, by his 2019 Budget's account.

    Limitations

    GSS rebased the CPI in 2019 and now uses 2021=100, so the 2016–18 inflation rates are not on the same basket as 2024–26. The 2017 primary balance uses pre-rebasing GDP.

    Forson's second year is not over. They also do not measure arrears or unreleased spending, which Bentil raised about Ofori-Atta.

    Sources

    Comments

    Numbers behind the story +

    Figures used

    • Headline inflation in October 2026, under Forson: 5.5% (GSS 2021=100 series; also in the 2027 Budget. Counted from January 2025, this is the 22nd calendar month in office)
    • Headline inflation in October 2018, under Ofori-Atta: 9.5% (From the 2019 Budget; older CPI series, so not strictly like-for-like with 5.5%)
    • Real GDP growth in 2017, after the rebase: 8.1% (Against 6.0% in 2025, Forson's first calendar year)

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